The Right Resistance: No illusions regarding the chances and challenge for GOP victory in 2024
“Accept the challenges so that you can feel the exhilaration of victory.” General George S. Patton.
Or put another way, nothing ventured, nothing gained. Or, those who do not try do not succeed. Or, winning isn’t everything, it’s the only thing. Or, for those who grew up in the 70’s and 80’s with “Wide World of Sports” every week, “The thrill of victory and the agony of defeat.” I can just hear the late Jim McKay’s immortal voice now, can’t you?
When it comes to American politics, the loser of an election not only goes home disappointed – they go home powerless, too. Stupid “ranked choice” voting suggests not every ballot winner (in terms of the greatest number of votes) is elected, but in the vast majority of circumstances, there’s no consolation for second place. 2022’s federal midterms featured a handful of races that were decided by a handful of votes – but only the declared winner is now seated.
Thoughts of victory are on the minds of all conservatives these days, as the presidency of senile Joe Biden has been even worse than contemplated. Last week’s collapse of several ESG-supporting banks – and the subsequent federal bailout of depositors – has (hopefully) taught Americans another valuable lesson: electing Democrats brings weakness abroad and disastrous consequences at home.
Why? Because all liberalism is based on a lie. It’s a fact.
Therefore, conservatives look to the 2024 election to right the ship, or at least keep it from dipping below the surface. There’s a certain aura of confidence that such a victory is within our grasp, but nothing is ever assured and lots of things can and will happen between now and Election Day late next year. Overconfidence is the enemy of every competitor – and underestimating your opponent is often lethal.
When your opponent is senile Joe Biden and the Democrats, Republicans can’t afford to get cocky. In a piece titled “Republicans Are Delusional If They Think Biden Will Be Easy to Beat”, wishy-washy establishment Republican commentator Rich Lowry wrote last week at Politico Magazine:
“Since 1992, Trump is the only incumbent to have lost, failing to join Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama as re-elected incumbents.
“Biden was never going to be the next LBJ or FDR as a cadre of historians had seemingly convinced him early in his presidency. But he punched above his weight legislatively during his first two years, getting more out of a tied Senate and slender House majority than looked realistically possible. He’s set up to have the advantage in this year’s momentous debt-limit fight, since it’s hard to see how congressional Democrats aren’t united and congressional Republicans divided.
“Biden’s age is a liability for him, but comes with a significant benefit — he does not look or sound like a radical any more than the average elderly parent or grandparent. This has enabled him to govern from the left — he would have spent even more the first two years if he could have — without appearing threatening or wild-eyed. He hasn’t restored normality to Washington so much as familiarity as the old hand who has been there since 1973 and made his first attempt at national office in 1988.”
Yeah, sure. In reality, Biden sounds like a semi-dementia patient in a maximum care facility (is there such a thing?), and only in Lowry’s contrarian establishment political world would this be considered a good thing. Senile Joe’s job approval ratings have ticked up some since their all-time low last year, but that doesn’t mean he’s popular.
Even Biden’s most ardent supporters would probably admit he’s not firing on all mental cylinders and the ravages of age can’t be reversed – or even stalled – to the point where he’s the same back slappin’, hair sniffin’, congressional staffer molestin’, nude swimmin’, tall tale tellin’ “Lunch Bucket Joe” from yesteryear. Senile Joe can’t even get the facts straight on his decades of riding AMTRAK from Washington to his Delaware home so he could read bedtime stories to sons Beau and Hunter.
But Lowry’s greater point about incumbency is well-taken, especially where a Democrat is concerned. In the past thirty years, neither Bill Clinton nor Barack Obama were seriously challenged for reelection, though it should be noted that Clinton didn’t reach 50 percent of the national vote in either of his victories. But close counts in horseshoes, hand grenades – and political contests – when there’s a third-party candidate like Ross Perot to siphon off some Democrat votes.
Biden would definitely enjoy a significant incumbency advantage in 2024 – that is, if he runs again (not set in stone) and deftly sidesteps the trials of such non-credible lunatic idiots like Marianne Williamson. It’s hard to fathom that there’d be a legitimate challenger to Biden if he does give his personal go-ahead, mostly since Democrats benefit from having placeholder senile Joe in power to dish out patronage and not demand anything from them other than their rubberstamp endorsements.
Biden’s approval rating is anchored in the mid-forties, which means his vote “floor” will probably never go lower than that. And there have to be millions and millions out there who would cast votes against the Republican nominee, so already it makes sense that Biden is creeping towards fifty percent without breaking a sweat.
As we learned in 2016, the Electoral College is an entirely different matter, though it’s hard to envision a scenario where all six of the 2016 Trump states that went for Biden in 2020 would magically return to the fold. And yes, there’s a strong inference of funny business in several (if not all) of those states, but common sense indicates it will be very hard for the GOP nominee to capture them back as a group.
Even someone as dumb as Biden enjoys an advantage when a strong percentage of the electorate is so addicted to federal subsidies and giveaways – and the “woke” agenda – that they’d never consider switching parties. This could conceivably turnaround if there was an issue that would draw the candidates’ views out into the open – like the Supreme Court vacancy in 2016 – but it’s impossible to tell what attention-span challenged voters will consider important in 2024.
One thing that is imminently predictable is the presence of billions of dollars of special interest money from the left. Liberal billionaires must be lining up to toss funds at the Democrat nominee and candidates, a comforting thought in terms of ballot harvesting and other strategies to maximize the low-information voter Democrat turnout.
This is true regardless of who wins the Republican nomination. Add the fact that Biden enjoys the enthusiastic backing of both the party establishment and most of the leftwing fringe, and the Democrat effort will be formidable no matter what.
Don’t leave out the power of the establishment media, which undoubtedly will do whatever it takes to paint the Republican nominee as an uncaring, racist, sexist, intolerant, gay bashing, xenophobic (whatever that means) “deplorable” who’s beyond redemption. If the Democrat is senile Joe, there’s the added label of “MAGA fascist”. Could we ever count on the corporate media to delve into the facts and distinctions? Heck no.
The Democrat spinmeisters will be out in force attempting to smear the Republicans as bent on destroying Medicare and Social Security. The effectiveness of their attacks would be blunted somewhat if Donald Trump wins the nomination, since seniors, as a group, love Trump.
Much ink has been spilled over the question of which Republican candidate is the most “electable”. Donald Trump certainly has his impressive contingent of “Always Trump” followers and he’s not indelibly tied to the GOP – which is good for him -- but his considerable personal baggage follows him everywhere and it’s uncertain whether the 45th president could moderate his tone enough to win back so-called centrists who won’t put up with the drama again.
Thus far in the campaign, it doesn’t look as though Trump thinks he needs to change a thing.
Meanwhile, Ron DeSantis and the other not-Trump Republican candidates face the monumental task of trying to wrest control of the GOP nomination away from Trump. Let’s not forget that it really wasn’t that close in 2016 – Trump won going away. 2020 was a cakewalk because of his incumbency. Trump is still highly thought of by a large majority of Republican voters, even if some of them don’t want him as their candidate again.
Biden encounters a similarly skeptical Democrat electorate. His age and increasingly unstable inability to convey their message are impressive obstacles. There will be many times during the campaign that they’ll talk openly about replacing him, especially if there’s an economic downturn and his popularity numbers dip appreciably.
Both sides seem ready to accept the challenges, but only one party will experience the exhilaration of victory. No conservative believes that Biden will be easy to defeat and no one is taking a 2024 win for granted. The Republican primary race will take care of itself; the real battle will begin sometime next year when the nominees are set and the mud starts slinging.
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