See if you recognize this scenario: Establishment media voice on a news cable channel: “A poll from Socialist Establishment Media Outlet X shows that Democrat congressional and senate candidates have gained ten points on their Republican counterparts since a month
ago. Political experts that we poached from the Democrat National Committee attribute the Democrat increase to an uptick in popularity and enthusiasm for president Joe Biden, who seems to be carrying his summer surge well into the fall post Labor Day campaign season.”
The sell-job is on, again, folks, and it’s not hard to recognize because the same phenomenon reoccurs every election season. Last year here in Virginia, for example, locals were subjected to poll after poll indicating the Democrats and gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe were running even or a little ahead of Republican outsider Glenn Youngkin. The reason? Survey analysts usually cited the 2020 election percentages where Biden defeated Donald Trump by double-digits here in the Commonwealth and them automatically assuming that the results would be replicated on every subsequent voting occasion.
Virginians must not listen to the pollsters because the actual totals were and are different practically every time. Youngkin won last year by nearly two percent, which was within the margin of error for most polls, but demonstrated, again, that pre-Election Day poll results aren’t always – or ever? – clearly indicative of a preordained result.
Republicans even captured a majority in the Virginia State Assembly last November. Luckily for Democrats, Virginia senate seats weren’t up for grabs in 2021, or Governor Youngkin would’ve been able to pass a lot more of his agenda in 2022.
The logical conclusion from all of this? Nothing is set in stone. Ever. Pollsters are still smarting from being way off in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, leaving a host of skeptical voters in their wake. If the establishment media talkers can’t get anything right in their daily observations and prognostications, what makes them any more prescient when it comes to forecasting voter turnout and preferences on the most important political days of the year?
Didn’t Liz Cheney lose by 37 points a few weeks ago when the most recent Wyoming polls pegged her at being behind by “only” twenty-something points? People only seemed to care about the astonishing margin of victory for Cheney’s opponent, but no one’s saying much about the polls being off by around ten points. That’s a lot.
Can the “pros” ever get it right? And doesn’t anyone care about their incompetence? In a piece titled “Pollsters still searching for fixes as 2022 voting nears”, Stephen Dinan reported at The Washington Times:
“Polls are getting plenty of attention these days, particularly as they show Republicans suddenly struggling in what should be a good environment for them: a midterm election year with a historically unpopular Democratic president, a lingering pandemic and a chaotic economy.
“The fundamental trick to polling is finding a sample that matches the overall population well enough to get valid results. In decades past, when nearly everybody who voted had a landline telephone and wasn’t bombarded by scam calls, it was relatively easy to get a solid sample. In 1997, Gallup says, it got responses from 28% of those it dialed. By 2017, that had dropped to just 7%. Pollsters have gone looking for ways to supplement — or in some cases completely supplant — phone calls…
“Mr. McLaughlin said good rules of thumb for pollsters are to use voter lists rather than random samplings of adults. His firm also uses a wide range of methods to reach potential respondents, including cellphones, a small percentage of landlines, and text messages. ‘It costs us like thousands of dollars just to build the list to make sure we’ve got a good sample,’ he said. ‘Good polling is expensive.’ That’s one reason why those in the business speak differently about polling for penny-pinching media organizations or polling meant for public consumption.”
Yes, it’s true. Good polling is pricey and that’s the reason why every major campaign sets aside a good chunk of their budget to get results that the brains can trust. Or kind of trust. If you’re running for office and you’re bent on shifting strategy every time Fox News or ABC/Washington Post shows voters demanding something other than what you’re giving them, then you’re destined to lose.
That’s part of what made Donald Trump such a unique presidential candidate in 2016 and again in 2020. The Republican devoted time in every one of his rallies and speeches to talking about polls, but it was still evident that he tailored his message towards a core of voters who were fed up with the swamp establishment and the way things were run in Washington DC.
Democrats fall into the poll ruse every time. This is due to the general liberal illogical and untrue philosophy that members of demographic or interest groups vote as a bloc and aren’t open to any perspectives other than those developed in a conference room at DNC headquarters. Inflation could be exceedingly high and economic growth pathetically low, but to Democrats, all the voters should care about is the Supreme Court’s overturning Roe v. Wade and the potential for abortion-seeking women to have to adhere to state level restrictions or, gulp, have the child and consult an adoption agency.
Likewise, senile Joe Biden frequently talks about pushing an “Assault Weapons Ban” if Democrats keep majorities in Congress this year. Is this really going to motivate Democrat voters to get to the polls? Will outlawing big, scary looking guns or setting magazine limits do anything positive for the person struggling to pay rent?
I’ve said it many times before, but Democrats think people are stupid. They label conservatives and Republicans as white supremacists, racists (same thing?), sexists, misogynists (same thing?), anti-immigrant, bigots (same thing?), homophobic, xenophobic, “bitter clingers” (to guns and religion), “deplorables” (from the basket of) and now, thanks to senile Joe, “MAGA Republicans”.
How would a poll reflect the influence of Democrats being so outwardly anti-conservative? How come no professionally done surveys present questions about the degree to which good American citizens are enraged by the Democrats’ fear-mongering? In both 2016 and 2020, Donald Trump attracted millions of votes from “forgotten Americans” who felt rejected and ignored by the powerful elites.
Wouldn’t this be considered “systemic” discrimination and bias against normal people?
Polls fail so often because there’s truly no way to tap this undercurrent of emotion that Democrats (especially) are inadvertently (or intentionally?) fostering. Of course, there are “likely voter” categories and the like, but whenever a poll subject is reached and mentions that he or she is such and such years old and never voted before, they’re automatically cast into a bin of non-voters whose opinions don’t count.
Reaching these “lost” voters is what Donald Trump did best. Are they angry enough about the “woke” cultural deterioration of the country to finally register and vote? Whereas it didn’t seem to matter as much in decades past, the differences between the parties are stark enough now to present a real choice between two worldviews.
Opinion operations such as Trafalgar use alternative methods to reach their conclusions and the group has become one of the more reliable companies in terms of predicting results. Like with real world outcomes, Trafalgar skews more Republican than the so-called mainstream operators. Need a visual? The right-leaning organization came out with a survey last week showing Republicans with a 6-point lead in the generic congressional ballot, compared with more “mainstream” pollsters forecasting a much smaller margin or even giving Democrats a slight edge.
It's hard to say exactly why Democrats put so much more faith in polls than conservatives and Republicans do, but here’s thinking it’s a science vs. history thing. Polling is billed as being “scientifically driven”, meaning some “expert” somewhere with an ultra-advanced degree in statistical analysis developed a hypothesis and a formula and then took data gathered from surveys and plugged it in to determine a result. The numbers are manipulated (weighted) according to what the “experts” think they should be and voilà, you have a new poll showing Democrats pulling ahead.
Conservatives are much more willing to study history and voting trends to reach their own conclusions, figuring human nature never changes and Americans are more likely to act as they have done in the past rather than change to fit the “woke” realities of the present.
If the “woke” progressives say you should adopt Critical Race Theory and champion yourself as an “anti-racist”, does this mean people actually go out and do it? What about the 1619 Project? Was all of America’s greatness built on the backs of African slaves?
My own theory is that the few voters who are left undecided probably won’t commit until the last week of the campaign, and Democrats will find a way to go overboard with their hyperbolic, feelings-driven natures and screw it up like they always do. As I often said to my kids, “Common sense usually wins in the end.” Americans will choose which side potentially represents a better direction for the country, and it ain’t Adolf Hitler-like senile Joe Biden and his merry band of climate change-loving transformation-ists that will receive the benefit of the doubt.
If I had to guess, I’m thinking pollsters will continue to do everything they can to keep Democrats “in the game” until Election Day, giving hope to marginal liberal voters who otherwise would be too discouraged to bother with exercising the franchise. The polls will get it wrong again this year, and next year the “experts” will still be wondering where they went astray.
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