If the 2024 election were held today, and former President Donald Trump was on the ballot with Democrat nominee Kamala Harris, he’d win.
There probably aren’t a lot of people from either side of the ideological spectrum who would vigorously dispute this notion, but a recent poll confirmed it (see below). As he indicated during an appearance on 9/11 in New York City last week, the much beloved (or reviled, depending on who you ask) previous president is still pondering a 2024 run, but he says he’s already made up his mind in one direction -- and that people would be “very happy” when he reveals his choice.
Democrats would be overjoyed if Trump were to say he’s retired from politics and wouldn’t run again even if Nancy Pelosi and “Chucky” Schumer got down on their rickety old knees and begged him to do it. Most conservatives and Republicans would be ecstatic -- or at least somewhat joyous -- if Trump decided he was going to be hitting the campaign trail again for what promises to be the barnstorming precedent of all time.
None of it means anything until events play out over the course of time. Constitutionally speaking, senile president Joe Biden still has over three more years to irreparably screw things up until 2024’s election day. But with the data points and public mood moving in Trump’s direction, one wonders how the lifelong real estate tycoon turned reality TV celebrity turned first time politician turned president of the United States could possibly say no.
“[A McLaughlin and Associates] survey said 71% of Republican primary voters want Trump to run again. And 86% would vote for him, the highest this year.
“While Trump has teased his expected 2024 bid, the media have been trying to figure out if any other Republican can knock him off, but the survey suggests the answer is not yet. When a list of Republicans is offered for GOP primary voters, Trump is the choice of 59%, followed by former Vice President Mike Pence at 10% and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 8%.
“And in a Harris-Trump election, the vote is too close to call: 49% Trump to 47% Harris. That margin grows to three points, 50% to 47%, if Trump faces Biden.”
Hold on there! Only two or three points separates a Trump/Harris or Trump/Biden contest? Before anyone gets too excited, there’s a ton of time before the party candidates are set, a multitude of things can happen, and we still don’t know when or how or if Biden will eventually be replaced.
The same survey Bedard referred to showed “…58% of likely voters believe Biden will be sidelined or worse and Harris installed in the Oval Office before the election. Just 32% see that as unlikely. Surprisingly, 52% of Democratic likely voters agree, as do majorities of Hispanics, blacks, men, and women.”
It's an enormous swing in public opinion in a relatively short amount of time. Those of us who follow American politics closely predicted that Biden couldn’t fool people for long, but even so, we’re a bit baffled that it’s swung so quickly. The 2020 election was kind of like California’s recent recall election where voters basically voted “Yes” to recall Trump, or “No” to let him serve out his should’ve-been-a-no-brainer natural eight-year (two) term.
With all the shenanigans that took place last year, it’ll likely never be known whether Trump actually did prevail in the Electoral College. But it’s harder to make the case that he would’ve won the popular vote in a fraud-free world, since the haters and Democrats and media and socialism purveyors and race baiters had gotten hold of the urban centers and canvassed every vote they possibly could for senile Joe and his new (to the national audience) gal pal sidekick, Kamala Harris.
So Americans essentially “recalled” Trump but it’s looking like they’ve already soured on the lone choice to replace him. All along, I argued that Biden wasn’t as likable or as principled or as experienced and wise as the media made him out to be. The “Uncle Joe” persona had been disproved long ago and in its place was a tarnished reputation for being Barack Obama’s errand boy and constitutionally elected man servant. Did anyone truly believe that this doddering idiot actually had a hand in making policy with the “Big O” at the helm?
It wasn’t just Obama, either. Look at the people around the anointed one (such as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton) and there was no way a man like Biden was going to elbow out the ultra-ambitious ones for establishment favor. By all appearances, senile Joe was left alone to work deals with Ukraine and China, likely under orders from the top to not do anything that would embarrass the first African-American president.
When Biden finally took over the party leadership, people joked about how long it would take for Democrats to invoke the 25th Amendment on their own president. Based on the results of the above-cited survey, I guess they don’t think the subject is funny anymore. If over half of Democrats believe it’s only a matter of time before Joe’s sent packing back to Delaware, there’s a pallor of death hanging over the current regime. I bet Jen Psaki looks out the window from the Oval Office every morning to see if there are vultures in the trees waiting to do their handiwork. The Washington swamp is full of scavengers, and the Democrat party is not immune to them.
Besides, what happens to Hunter then? Will Dr. Jill retire from teaching (or whatever the heck she does)? If he’s deemed incompetent, does that mean Joe will be committed to a newly established care facility for deposed Democrat politicians? The day after the 2022 midterm elections, there will probably be a gaggle of ‘em to get the place started.
The fact that Kamala Harris’s approval ratings are as bad or worse than Joe’s isn’t providing liberals any comfort, either. Assuming Kamala takes over for senile Joe sometime in the next three years, it’s doubtful she’ll be given the same kind of deference in the 2024 party primaries that incumbents are almost always afforded the next time around.
Unlike Republicans, liberals don’t wait to get rid of the next-in-line if they’re viewed as non-viable. Never forget that doddering Joe’s historical presidential twin was Jimmy Carter, and the Democrat left wing couldn’t wait to run Teddy Kennedy against him in 1980. It was a long time ago, but Kennedy was initially polling way ahead of the incumbent after the Chappaquiddick murderer announced his candidacy and even managed to win several states before eventually failing to overcome Carter’s considerable delegate lead.
The same could easily happen in 2024 when “President Kamala” goes for a first full term. Bernie Sanders will be too old by that time, but there are ambitious up-and-comers who are just as socialistic without the smell of decay associated with their withered frames. Foremost among them is Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who will have only reached his early forties by the time the election rolls around.
Buttigieg is primed to assume the Democrat reigns, too. As the party’s and nation’s first openly gay man to win a state (Iowa), the former South Bend (Indiana) mayor vaulted to the top of liberal voters’ consciousness last year. Not only does he have a national post now, Pete and “husband” Chasten just adopted twins to accentuate their fairytale “woke” lifestyle. Can’t you just see the human interest stories the media would drum up if Buttigieg challenges Harris? It’s like a liberal’s ultimate pipedream, toddlers running around the White House chased by Pete, Chasten and a transgender male nanny or two with the couple’s dogs in tow.
Of course, identity politics only carries you so far, but as the 2020 election demonstrated, Democrats don’t give much credence to substance or platform when selecting between their presidential contenders. The popularity dip the party is experiencing now is due to the realization that lofty campaign rhetoric and the general feeling of “anyone but Trump” doesn’t have much staying power.
If Trump does run, there will be a plethora of well-deserved bombs lofted in the Democrats’ direction. But the campaign will also be exceedingly substantive, since the issues of societal decline have become so much more compelling in senile Joe’s first half-year as president. Presumably, Democrats learned that you just can’t demagogue a worldwide pandemic or a very real illegal immigration crisis and get away with it, especially when the Chinese created virus or motivated foreign migrants can’t be controlled by government edicts.
It was good to see that former President Trump was running ahead of both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in a potential Election Day 2024 matchup. It was also interesting to observe how a strong majority of Americans don’t expect Biden to complete his full term. Events will play themselves out, but what will remain of the republic when the dust settles?
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