Updated: Sep 20
From a purely political perspective, the passing of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg could seal the election of President Trump and a Republican majority in both chambers of Congress.
It is necessary for the nomination and vote to happen after the November 3 election.
Having a vacancy on the ballot will significantly increase the vote for Trump.
Having a vacancy on the ballot will significantly increase the GOP vote for the House, Senate, governors, and down-ballot races.
Voters go to the polls to expect what you will accomplish, i.e., a conservative Supreme Court. Voters do not go to the polls to thank you for a job well done. An example is Winston Churchill who weeks after winning WWII was voted out of office because he was talking about his accomplishments, while his opponents talked about the future.
It puts Biden on the defensive to come up with a list of nominees, which he won’t because it probably would cost him the election.
The confirmation process before the election would dominate the conversation and the media’s focus through November 3. The media will use it to paint Republicans as unprincipled and hypocritical. Republicans want the conversation to be about the views of a Biden nominee.
Submitting a nominee before the election will divide Senate Republicans, and also get the focus off Biden’s nominee.
Waiting until after the election will encourage some Republican Never-Trumpers on the fence to move to Trump.
Waiting until after the election will encourage some Republican Never-Trumpers who are now for Biden to switch their vote to Trump.
Sermons in tens of thousands of evangelical and Catholic churches about a pro-life court will be frequent and impactful.
How do we know waiting until after the election for the nomination and confirmation is necessary?
In the 2016 election, 26 percent of Trump’s voters said the Supreme Court was the number one reason why they voted for him. Not only will that hold true in 2020, but the percentage will be even larger.
So, Mr. President, I respectfully suggest that keeping the Supreme Court vacancy on the ballot November 3 is the necessary choice for America, Republicans, your MAGA base, and your re-election.