Back in November of 2021 we asked “Is Biden Capable Of Running A Two Front War?” and pointed out that we didn’t think Biden was capable of defending both Taiwan and Ukraine in the face of Russian and Red Chinese aggression.
Now our friend Frank Gaffney has added another twist to the problem by pointing out something we had overlooked in our November analysis: Iran.
As Mr. Gaffney explained in his latest must-listen Secure Freedom Minute, Team Biden says Russia will initiate its latest invasion of Ukraine today. The good news is that’s probably not true.
The bad news is that, by pre-arrangement with China’s dictator, Xi Jinping, the one misruling Russia, Vladimir Putin, will likely launch that attack next week, once the Genocide Games in Beijing wrap up. It is in their mutual interest not to distract from that Communist Chinese propaganda fest.
The really bad news is that, after the Chinese Communist Party has milked every ounce of international legitimacy and gold medals out of the Winter Olympics, it’s likely to be game-on. And not just for Russia in Ukraine. Once that happens, expect to see China piling on in Taiwan, possibly India and/or elsewhere. Iran and Israel going at it. And perhaps the Korean peninsula hotting up, too.
Sound like World War III? asked Mr. Gaffney.
Yes, it does, and if events unfold as Mr. Gaffney suggests they could, can Joe Biden handle it?
Invading a non-threatening neighbor appears to be the inexplicable whim of a dictator or perhaps the act of an international bully intent on regional domination and to most American it looks like there is little to be gained and much that is allegedly valued in international relations to be lost by a Russian invasion of Ukraine.
But what the establishment media isn’t telling you is that there may be a very good reason for the Russian invasion of Ukraine that every American would understand – oil.
As we explained way back in 2014, Putin’s Russian Federation is Europe’s energy superpower.
Russia holds the largest natural gas reserves in the world. According to the US Energy Information Administration Russia is the second-largest producer of dry natural gas and third-largest liquid fuels producer in the world. Russia's economy is highly dependent on its hydrocarbons, and oil and gas revenues account for more than 50% of Russia’s federal budget revenues.
The oil and gas producing region of the Dnieper-Donets basin in Ukraine happens to coincide with the eastern region of the country that has a substantial Russian-speaking population. And the Crimean peninsula, already occupied by Russian troops includes most of the rest of Ukraine’s oil and gas producing capacity.
The Russian-inspired separatist movement in the Donbas has crippled Ukraine’s energy sector and not coincidently, advanced the Russian near-monopoly of the European natural gas market.
And experience suggests maintaining that economically vital Russian monopoly and the political power that goes with it would be more than enough internal political justification for Putin to invade Ukraine.
But maybe Putin doesn’t even have to invade, he can just keep the economic pressure on Ukraine, and courtesy of Biden’s panicky public statements (to say nothing of his son Hunter looting the prostrate country) Ukraine’s Western-oriented government may fall to internal disruption and invite the Russians in.
On the other side of the world, Communist China considers Taiwan to be a mere breakaway province and President Joe Biden has sown confusion in recent weeks over the U.S. military commitment to Taiwan by saying the U.S. was prepared to defend Taiwan in the event of an attack -- comments that appeared to go beyond previous U.S. commitments to make sure Taiwan can defend itself.
What’s more, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said allied nations would be prepared to “take action” if China uses force against Taiwan.
The question of the U.S. commitment to defend Taiwan has gained urgency amid rising U.S.-China tensions. Bloomberg reports China has ramped up military flights near Taiwan, flying more than 200 planes into the island’s air-defense-identification zone in October, and some analysts have warned that President Xi Jinping may be preparing for an invasion in coming years.
Kris Osborn, Defense Editor for the National Interest, reminds us that this is not idle speculation from TV talking heads; the Defense Department’s annual report on China, titled Military and Security Developments involving the People’s Republic of China (PRC), raises concern about that possibility. The report claims that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) may pursue a dual-pronged strategy that includes a joint blockade, missile strikes and the “seizure” of Taiwan’s offshore islands.
On Nov. 18,2021, Foreign Policy observed that the number of U.S. military personnel has continued to rise over the past several months, and while the numbers are small the positioning of U.S. military personnel in harm’s way suggests a conscious decision to put a trip wire in place to justify further U.S. involvement should Red China attack.
But the real wild card in this scenario is Iran.
Just a month ago, Iran, Russia, and China are holding their third joint naval drill in the northern Indian Ocean. Russian vessels, together with the Chinese and Iranian navies, performed "joint tactical maneuvering and practiced artillery fire at a naval target as well as search-and-rescue missions at sea," the Russian Defense Ministry said on January 21, adding that the sides also "practiced inspection and liberation of a ship that was supposedly captured by pirates," reported Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.
Eleven Iranian vessels were joined by three Russian ships and two Chinese vessels, Iranian Rear Admiral Mostafa Tajoldini earlier told state TV. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) are also participating in the exercises, with smaller ships and helicopters.
While the exercise itself was of limited importance militarily, the drill provides the latest evidence of growing security cooperation between China, Russia, and Iran that should sound alarm bells in Washington, Jerusalem, and key Arab capitals, said Bradley Bowman of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
Red China and Islamist Iran already cooperated to achieve the Taliban victory in Afghanistan, so their further cooperation in an effort to keep US forces from assisting Taiwan would have a recent and successful precedent.
As former Secretary of Defense Bob Gates put it, Joe Biden has been wrong on every major issue for the past 50-years. So, all this talk of defending Ukraine and Taiwan is making us very nervous, not because we are necessarily opposed to containing Red China and Putin’s Russia, but because, based on his disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, we doubt Joe Biden’s ability to manage such an effort to a successful conclusion, especially if both of our adversaries move in coordination with Iran.
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