From here on out, every election is a “base” election
Every election, much is made about whether it’s a “base” election, or whether either of the candidates could possibly help his or her chances of winning by attracting members of the opposite party, or completely new voters, or voters who might not have shown up in opinion surveys as “likely” to turn out to cast a ballot. Both President Trump and Joe Biden have been accused of campaigning strictly to rile up their own bases of support, but recent data doesn’t necessarily indicate that it’s happening that way. At least where Trump is concerned.
Numbers from Trump’s post COVID-19 recovery rallies (or more succinctly, his “Peaceful protest” in Michigan) shows that many of those in attendance were not the voters the president locked up prior to 2016’s election, and that his electoral coalition appears to be much broader than the media would have us believe. If the data is to be trusted -- and there’s no reason to suspect it’s inaccurate -- Trump’s enthusiastic “base” includes a significant portion of registered Democrats, minority voters and women. And first-time voters too.
The inimitable Paul Bedard reported at The Washington Examiner the other day, “In the 13 reelection events since returning to the campaign trail following his COVID-19 diagnosis, President Trump has attracted over 167,000 rally goers, many of them first time voters and even more who are not Republicans.
“According to GOP rally data posted by Republican Party Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel, the Trump airport campaign events strongly suggest that he is building out his base and that media reports the president is only talking to his core constituency are wrong.
“Her reports, based on information taken by attendees and those who signed up to attend, show that about one quarter did not vote in 2016 and a third were not even Republicans. For example, at Trump’s Oct. 17 stop in Janesville, Wisc., McDaniel said that 47.5% of the 13,850 said they were not Republicans.”
These percentages echo those from Trump’s earlier campaign events, in the old days when he could speak indoors and attract thousands of mask-less humans unafraid of catching contagion and a life-threatening sickness.
Even so, this is a staggering figure. One only needs to watch a Trump rally to see that the raucous crowds are a good mix of “ordinary” folks who are not only enthusiastic about their candidate, they’re there for a good time celebrating their exceptional nation and its culture. This “base” of support appears to be in evidence all over the country, though Trump’s campaign focus has been on the swing states exclusively. And while a rally would naturally draw only the most fervent of backers, the “silent” stats probably aren’t that far apart from them.
This isn’t predicting that all the establishment polls are wildly wrong and that Trump will win the election in a landslide rivaling Ronald Reagan’s 1984 performance, but here’s thinking that Trump’s campaign strategy -- hammering Grampa Joe relentlessly and making the vote all about so-called Trumpism vs. Biden and the Democrats’ corruption, profligate spending and socialism, probably isn’t that bad of a plan after all.
Trump always dominates the post-debate online polls, but the media doesn’t pay any attention to those. Who would bother dropping fifty cents or a dollar to register approval for Joe Biden? No one, that’s who. He’s an idiot and the reason he’s ahead in establishment polls is his status as the not-Trump candidate. The Democrat’s fundraising totals are impressive, but the vast majority of his money stems from large liberal billionaire donors and bundlers collecting checks as tribute rather than genuine love.
Not to mention these “supporters” will be there with both hands extended seeking a piece of the federal pie if Democrats pull off the improbable on Election Day.
Of course Biden isn’t conducting any rallies of significant size, and before Thursday night, had locked himself in his basement bunker (supposedly to practice and prep for the debate) without any news releases while the Hunter Biden laptop scandal raged all around them. But even if Grampa Joe was more actively conducting rallies than the relatively inert Hillary Clinton did four years ago, there’s no way a quarter or more of his attendees would identify themselves as Republicans.
The media makes great hay over the miniscule but boisterous #NeverTrump faction, but how many of them are out there? Their ranks haven’t grown significantly since Trump’s 2016 win, and, if anything, a big chunk of the never-never-ever-ever Trumpers have subsequently jumped on the Trump bandwagon. Trump’s “base” support is so strong that there was no prominent intra-party movement to knock him off in this year’s party primaries. And now it looks as though he’s getting a lot of Democrat, independent and first time/rare voter backing as well.
So therefore, it’s not surprising that Trump took the aggressive anti-Joe tack in the first debate and somewhat again on Thursday night. The difference being that Trump could still be himself and also come across as professional and in-control. He had very little to lose and only a bit to gain, but I think he accomplished it in Nashville.
It'll be a cold, dark day in you-know-where before Trump is anything less than confident. Meanwhile, Biden didn’t exactly come across as a man who believed he would surely win. The older man was typically petulant and defensive whenever challenged, but clearly the events of the past couple weeks have taken their toll on the near 78-year-old. Whereas Trump seemed tired and irritable in the first debate, it was Biden who appeared worn-out and in need of a hospital stay in Nashville.
Think about it. Anyone could envision Trump going to a Tennessee country music honkytonk bar and getting along swimmingly with the clientele, even if he was dressed in a suit. But Biden? He obviously feels most at home hanging with the elites in business and government, because that’s all he’s known for the past fifty years of his life. He’s completely lost touch with the “average” American and he's not really a “regular” guy at all. And it shows.
Grampa Joe may not be taxing himself to the brink on the campaign trail, but he’s clearly not as spry as he was twelve years ago as Obama’s running mate. And the Joe that showed up in Nashville on Thursday night is a shadow of his former loud-talking self in the senate. The lame attempts at humor are still there, but these days, the laughter is more from pity than it is authentic empathy.
Can anyone who viewed Thursday night’s debate seriously picture Joe Biden as president?
October Surprise… or late term predictability?
One reason for the anti-climactic atmosphere of Thursday night’s debate was the fact so many people already made up their minds on voting months ago and there wasn’t a single thing either candidate could say that would move them from their rock. To this group, which is probably at least ninety-five percent of those planning to participate in this election, it doesn’t matter how many “October surprise(s)” are out there.
Where Trump is concerned, these types of non-damaging revelations have been continually released since before he even took office. With a nonstop drumbeat of “Russia, Russia, Russia”, Democrats long ago exhausted the “wow” factor among news consumers. The nauseating, mundane and stupid Robert Mueller investigation consumed much of everyone’s attention span in addition to the tens of millions of dollars it costed to conduct it.
How about impeachment over a phone call? It turns out everything that was in Trump’s conversation with the Ukrainian president in July, 2019 was on the level and completely justified. Thanks, Hunter! Perhaps the president should be nominated for another Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to stamp out international corruption. Bring forth the Biden family as witnesses -- and defendants -- please!
At any rate, nothing much turns heads these days. Valerie Richardson reported at The Washington Times, “The 2020 election season already has provided enough October surprises to fill a pinata, but the would-be bombshells involving President Trump and former Vice President Joseph R. Biden have yet to pack much of a punch.
“The Bob Woodward book, the Trump tax returns, the Hunter Biden laptop emails — so far none has been able to hold the public’s attention beyond the first few days of the news cycle, which may say more about the roller coaster news cycle than the disclosures themselves.”
It's true. If Americans weren’t astonished by what was stored in Hunter Biden’s computer, it says something. Some of apathy is due to the media’s and big tech’s frantic efforts to suppress the story, but most of it is because there’s nothing that shocks folks anymore. People are comfortably numb. The dissatisfaction with the establishment political class is much more pervasive than fear of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP, or Wuhan, if you prefer) virus. Leftists and liberals closed their eyes and ears to Donald Trump well before the 2016 election and haven’t opened them since.
Another reason is the lack of necessity to define the other candidate. Donald Trump has been an American household name for decades and there isn’t a voter in the country who doesn’t have an opinion of him after all that time plus four years of his presidency. Even the media, which hates him, still feels compelled to plaster his face all over their pages and broadcasts. What or who else are they going to talk about, “Chucky” Schumer?
Then there’s Joe Biden, who’s also universally known (but not necessarily understood or admired). Biden was nationally famous before he even took office, the subject of news stories about the young newly elected Delaware senator whose wife and daughter were killed in an auto accident before Christmas. A widely publicized Biden run for president went down in flames in 1987 because of a plagiarism scandal, and subsequent brain aneurysms also kept him in the headlines.
Grampa Joe wouldn’t dare admit it now, but the brain aneurysm thing is probably why he’s so terrified of contracting COVID-19, figuring the aggressive flu-like virus might permanently debilitate or kill him.
At any rate, people recognize Biden for all he’s been through and his seemingly dutiful support of “The One”, Barack Obama, in the man’s “Hope and Change” presidency.
The media’s watered down versions of corruption don’t register any longer. And where Trump is the center of attention, it’s like we’ve heard it all before, including several times in 2016. If the “Access Hollywood” tape didn’t bring him down then, what would now, another Stormy Daniels accusation?
2020 features two incredibly vetted candidates. The rest is just white noise in the midst of a fireworks show.
Obama says Trump empowers the racist in his supporters
Speaking to a parking lot full of cars the other day, none other than former president Barack Obama gave his pitch for electing Grampa Joe n’ sidekick Kamala Harris. The big O doesn’t want us to have to argue about Trump’s tweets in the next four years, so that’s why we should turn over our economic futures to a doddering, mentally failing idiot and his opportunistic socialist running mate. Jessica Chasmar reported at The Washington Times, “Former President Barack Obama on Wednesday compared President Trump to a ‘crazy uncle’ whose rhetoric encourages others to be ‘cruel and divisive and racist.’ …
“’With Joe and [vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris] at the helm, you’re not going to have to think about the crazy things they said every day,’ the former president said. ‘And that’s worth a lot. You’re not going to have to argue about them every day. It just won’t be so exhausting. You might be able to have a Thanksgiving dinner without having an argument.’
“’There are consequences to these actions,’ he added. ‘They embolden other people to be cruel and divisive and racist, and it frays the fabric of our society, and it affects how our children see things. And it affects the ways that our families get along. It affects how the world looks at America. That behavior matters. Character matters.’”
So, let me get this straight. If two family members disagree over Trump’s opposition to the Iran Deal or the Paris Climate Accord, they should just bury their differences and talk about Grampa Joe’s latest foray out of his basement? This coming from the guy who said “The police acted stupidly” and accused liberal-wary rural voters of being bitter clingers to guns and religion. What a crock.
Obama and crew are trying to hold on with the election being all about Trump’s tweets. They think we’re stupid and petty, just like they are. They’re wrong.
People will continue to talk about Thursday night’s final presidential debate until another subject arises to take its place. Perhaps it will be the full senate vote for Judge Amy Coney Barrett, or more revelations from Hunter Biden’s infamous laptop. With only a week to go until Election Day, time is running out to change the narrative. Excitement is on the horizon.
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